Back in February 2023, Premier League officials formally charged Manchester City with a series of serious financial rule violations. The case moved forward to a lengthy 10-week hearing that was held in September 2024.
Although proceedings concluded in December of that year, the verdict from the three-member Independent Commission panel has still not been made public, leaving fans, clubs, and analysts waiting for clarity.
Football finance specialist Kieran Maguire has frequently commented on the situation. Speaking recently on The Overlap, he explained the extraordinary scale of the case, noting that roughly half a million pieces of evidence were submitted collectively by both the prosecution and the club’s legal team. According to Maguire, after more than a year of anticipation, the process appears to be entering its final stages, suggesting a ruling could arrive soon.
He also discussed the potential consequences if City were ultimately found guilty, despite the club strongly rejecting all allegations. Maguire predicted that the most severe likely punishment would be a major points deduction — possibly between 40 and 60 points.
His reasoning drew comparisons with recent sanctions imposed on Everton and Nottingham Forest, both of whom lost points for financial breaches covering shorter timeframes.
Maguire emphasized that relegating City directly to lower divisions such as those governed by the English Football League would not be within the Premier League’s authority, since those competitions operate under a separate structure.
Therefore, a points penalty remains the most realistic disciplinary option. Given that the alleged violations span nearly nine years — far longer than previous cases — he argued that a much larger punishment would logically follow to maintain consistency with precedent.
If such a deduction were applied immediately, the impact on the league standings would be dramatic. With City currently sitting on 56 points after 28 matches, a 60-point penalty would plunge them to negative territory and place them at the bottom of the table. This scenario would significantly reshape the title race and European qualification picture. Arsenal would suddenly hold a commanding lead at the top, while Aston Villa would become their nearest challengers.
Meanwhile, teams like Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool would each climb higher in the standings. Lower-table clubs would also see major changes, with West Ham United potentially escaping relegation danger, while Wolverhampton Wanderers would still remain above City despite being near the bottom.
In such a scenario, City would face an almost impossible survival task, needing to win all remaining fixtures while relying heavily on other results to avoid finishing last.
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